The divergent effects of polycentric urban form on urban carbon emissions: Spatial balance and spatial dispersion in Chinese cities

Abstract

Polycentric development stands as a pivotal spatial strategy for promoting urban sustainability. However, its effectiveness in curbing urban carbon emissions (UCEs) remains debated. Few studies have unpacked drivers of these conflicting impacts. This study delves into the intricate nuances of polycentric urban form and its potential to mitigate UCEs in Chinese cities. First, we refine our understanding of polycentric form by incorporating both spatial balance (SB) and spatial dispersion (SD) as key attributes, showing SB decreases and SD increases UCEs in general. Second, SB effectively reduces industrial UCEs but has limited impacts on residential and travel-related emissions. SD drives UCEs in all sectors. Third, our multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model unveils how the impact of polycentric form on UCEs varies across different regional contexts. Notably, both impacts of SB and SD are more pronounced in the northern cities. Our decomposition of the influences from polycentric trends on UCEs contributes to the ongoing debates, offering a comprehensive understanding of the divergent sustainable effects of polycentricity. It underscores the necessity of tailoring the polycentric urban form to divergent attributes, specific UCEs sectors and regional contexts to achieve sustainability.