The development of methods and modelsfor the control and prevention of risk situations at the design stage of complex technical systems

Abstract

The paper is devoted to development of the system of methods and models of control and prevention of the risk situations arising at a design stage of difficult technical systems in the conditions of interval uncertainty and fuzzy basic data. The offered system of methods and models is based on certain consecutive use of methods, and models, using the generalized scheme of methodology of cognitive and fuzzy cognitive modeling. The novelty of this system consists in association of cognitive modeling, scenario modeling and also methods of soft computing that differs from the case of using of each of the called elements separately, and from works in the field of cognitive modeling. Fragments of screen forms of the software which realizes separate models and methods of the developed system are given. The results of experimenteal studies dealing with efficiency of the offered system are presented.