Abstract
Creation of complex technical systems (CTS) is complicated iterative process, which is connected with considerable expenses of material, labor and financial resources together with many arising risk situations caused by constructive defects, industrial releases of unproven technologies, staff faults, inadequate skill level, etc. It can lead to sufficient backlog or fall of CTS creation project. Therefore modeling of the risk situations arising during creation of complex technical systems in the conditions of fuzzy input data is the relevant. Two modern approaches are proposed to detect and predict risk situations: fuzzy cognitive modeling and situation modeling. The convolution algorithm is presented for situation graph generalization. The construction and impulse modeling for fuzzy cognitive model of risk detection in nuclear industry is considered. The results of modeled scenarios of possible risk evolution and their analysis are shown. Proposed approaches allow to identify and analyze the facts impacting on risk situation, obtain possible scenarios of emergence, find the decision ways in modeled situations. It can be used a basis in the production of scientifically proven management actions.
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