The Development of a Warm-Weather Relative Stress Index for Environmental Applications

Abstract

The heat stress index (HSI) is a new, comprehensive summer index that evaluates daily relative stress for locations throughout the United States based on deviations from the norm. The index is based on apparent temperature and other derived meteorological variables, including cloud cover, cooling degree-days, and consecutive days of extreme heat. Statistical distributions of meteorological variables are derived for 10-day periods of the annual cycle so that percentile values for each parameter can be determined. The daily percentile values for each variable are then summed, and a statistical distribution is fit to the summed frequencies. The daily HSI value is the percentile associated with the location of the daily summed value under the summation curve. The index is analyzed and spatially verified by comparing intra- and interregional results. Although stations from various climate regions have different criteria defining an excessive heat stress event, neighboring stations typically produce similar HSI results because they are usually affected by the same air mass. To test the effectiveness of the HSI, a relationship between the index results and mortality values is made. Overall, the highest mortality days are associated with the highest HSI values, but high-HSI days are not always associated with high numbers of deaths. A mortality study such as this one is just one of many potential environmental applications of the HSI. Other applications include implementing the index to correlate extreme weather conditions with resource consumption, such as electric-utility load, to determine conditions for which load levels are excessive. The ability to forecast the HSI using a variety of weather forecasting tools has also generated interest within various industries that have a need to issue weather stress advisories, watches, and warnings.