The Deterrent Effect of Perceived Severity of Punishment

Abstract

Previous findings from perceptual studies of deterrence lead to the conclusion that perceived certainty of punishment (but not perceived severity of punishment) is inversely related to involvement in illegal behavior. The conclusion concerning severity is inconsistent with the rational image of man in utilitarian thought, the philosophicalframework in which modern deterrence theory is grounded. We question the validity of previous measures of perceived severity and argue that the appropriate hypothesis never has been tested with a valid measure. In our own analysis we use a refined measure which we believe is more consistent with the utilitarian perspective. The results support the hypothesis that perceived severity, at relatively high levels of perceived certainty, has a significant deterrent effect. Deterrence theory, like exchange theory and utility theory, is rooted in philosophical utilitarianism in viewing man as a maximizer, that is, a calculator of profit from estimates of gain and cost resulting from the projected act (Geerken and Gove, 497). Deterrence research focuses on one type of potential cost, the threat of legally imposed physical and/or material deprivation; and on one type of projected act, law violation. Recently, sociological research on deterrence has shifted from a concern with relationships among aggregate properties (e.g., arrest rate and crime rate) to a concern with the relationship-between individuals' perceptions of legal sanctions and their involvement in illegal behavior.1 The relevant dimensions of an individual's perceptions are the perceived certainty of arrest and the perceived severity of punishment if arrested. These reflect the subjective probability of incurring a particular cost and the magnitude of that cost if it is incurred. The rational actor of the utilitarians, when deciding whether to commit an illegal act, estimates the probability of receiving a legally imposed penalty (perceived certainty of arrest) and the magnitude of that penalty (perceived severity of punishment if arrested). This potential cost is added to other potential costs which are compared to potential