The deterministic component of the traffic flow intensity

Abstract

The information obtained from enforcement complexes of traffic rules allows determining in real time the traffic flow intensity over long periods of time. The analysis of the obtained dependencies leads to the conclusion that there is a periodic deterministic component in the characteristic of the traffic flow intensity. The using of the smoothing procedure allows one to define the deterministic and stochastic components, which are qualitatively different on workdays and weekends. Statistical indicators of stochastic distributions of traffic flow intensities and random components isolated from them are determined. The estimates of the correspondence of the obtained curves to the normal law of probability distribution were carried out. It is shown that the deterministic components of the traffic flows intensity both on working days and on weekends are similar in shape and location of maximum and minimum values. It seems appropriate to use deterministic components for predicting traffic flows, controlling the operation of traffic lights, monitoring equipment operation, as well as in the reconstruction, design and construction of roads and road facilities.