Abstract
The relevance of the manuscript is due to the need to process and analyze the information accumulated by the complexes of photo-video recording of traffic violations, which will further develop mathematical, computational and simulation models of road transport, solve problems of optimization and management of traffic flows, make management decisions to reduce the number of congestion and reduce the anthropogenic load on the environment. The object of the study is a part of a three-lane road with heavy one-way traffic, equipped with a software and technical complex that allows measuring the main characteristics of the traffic flow (vehicle speeds, including the average values on the controlled road part, driving time, etc.). The subject of the study is the traffic flow intensity during a 7-day time (from Monday to Sunday). The analysis of the obtained dependences allowed us to formulate a hypothesis about the presence of determin- istic and stochastic components in the traffic flow intensity, which is a random function of time, and the verification of which is the purpose of this study. Statistical processing of the obtained data is used as a theoretical and methodological approach, as well as the assumption that the traffic flow intensity can be represented by the sum of deterministic and stochastic components. The developed approach using the smoothing procedure allowed us to select both components, and this is a scientific novelty of the analysis performed. As a result of the study, it is shown that the deterministic component of the traffic flow intensity for working days is qualitatively different from the deterministic component for weekends. Statistical indicators of probabilistic distributions of traffic flow intensities and random components selected from them are determined. Estimates of the correspondence of the selected curves to the normal law of probability distribution are obtained using the Kolmogorov and Pearson criteria, which contradict each other. Practical significance consists in the use of a deterministic component for predicting traffic flows, controlling the operation of traffic lights, monitoring the operation of equipment, as well as in the reconstruction, design and construction of roads and road objects. The direction of further research is to obtain, statistically process and generalize data on the traffic flows intensity in other parts of the road network.
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