The Determination of Earthquake Hazard Parameters Deduced from Bayesian Approach for Different Seismic Source Regions of Western Anatolia

Abstract

The Bayesian method is used to evaluate earthquake hazard parameters of maximum regional magnitude (Mmax), β value, and seismic activity rate or intensity (λ) and their uncertainties for the 15 different source regions in Western Anatolia. A compiled earthquake catalog that is homogenous for Ms ≥ 4 was completed during the period from 1900 to 2013. The computed Mmax values are between 6.00 and 8.06. Low values are found in the northern part of Western Anatolia, whereas high values are observed in the southern part of Western Anatolia, related to the Aegean subduction zone. The largest value is computed in region 10, comprising the Aegean Islands. The quantiles of functions of distributions of true and apparent magnitude on a given time interval [0,T] are evaluated. The quantiles of functions of distributions of apparent and true magnitudes for future time intervals of 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100 years are calculated in all seismogenic source regions for confidence limits of probability levels of 50, 70, and 90 %. According to the computed earthquake hazard parameters, the requirement leads to the earthquake estimation of the parameters referred to as the most seismically active regions of Western Anatolia. The Aegean Islands, which have the highest earthquake magnitude (7.65) in the next 100 years with a 90 % probability level, is the most dangerous region compared to other regions. The results found in this study can be used in probabilistic seismic hazard studies of Western Anatolia.