Identifying Of Earthquake Hazard Parameters With Bayesian Method For Cyprus, Southern Turkey

Abstract

Summary In this study, we used the Bayesian method of prior and posterior probabilities to estimate hazard parameters in future 5, 25, 50 and 100 years for Cyprus, Southern Turkey. The earthquake hazard parameters estimated as the maximum regional magnitude (Mmax), β value and seismic activity rate or intensity (λ) and their uncertainties. We divided into six different seismic source zones based on epicenter distribution, tectonic, seismicity, geology, faults in Cyprus. While the highest magnitude value is calculated in Aksu thrust zone (zone 6), the lowest value is calculated in continuing of east Cyprus Arc zone (zone 4). The “quantiles” of “apparent” and “true” magnitudes are calculated at next time intervals of 5, 25, 50, and 100 years. The confidence limits of probability levels of 50, 70 and 95 % are determined for the 6 different seismic source zones. According to earthquake hazard parameters, Aksu Thrust Zone is estimated more highest seismicity active zone in comparison with other zones. Aksu Thrust Zone is determined an earthquake at 7.20 maximum magnitude with 95% occurrence probability in future 100 years. This work will guide scientists in earthquake hazard studies for Cyprus and will be useful for the earthquake hazard of Cyprus.