The Description of Population Vulnerability in Quantitative Risk Analysis

Abstract

The description of the distribution of population in the potential impact areas of accident scenarios is of utmost importance for the assessment of the final consequences of potential accidents. Vulnerability centers (i.e., sites where the simultaneous presence of a relevant number of persons in a narrow area is anticipated) may play an important role in this framework. In this study a method for the correct and detailed description of offsite target population in potential impact areas of major accidents is developed. The method is aimed at supporting quantitative risk analysis studies, emergency planning, and land-use planning. An approach is suggested to define the population categories that should be taken into account and to provide criteria for indoor and outdoor population distribution in vulnerability centers. Case studies are also provided to understand the outcomes and the potentialities of the methodology.