Abstract

AbstractThe aim of this paper is to show possible consequences of changesin labor force participation of women and the connection between fer-tility and labor force participation on the future demographic and eco-nomic development in Germany. For this purpose a projection modelbased on micro-data covering the population development as well asthe development of the labor force is computed for di erent scenarios,varying in the extent of changes in female participation rates. Theresults point to a sharp decline in size of the total population andlabor force as well as on negative e ects of demographic developmenton growth, mediated through incompatibility of fertility and partici-pation. It is argued that this incompatibility leads to a demographicdilemma, imposing negative e ects on growth either in short or in longterm. Keywords: Demographic forecast, labor supply, fertility, economic growthJEL Classi cation: J11, J21, O40 Ruhr-Universitat Bochum, e-mail: christian.dudel@rub.de. I would like to thankJorg Althammer, Kevin Folger, Sebastian Jeworutzki, Katharina Lerch, Dominik Libuda,Patrick Neuhaus, Ulrich Potter and Gotz Rohwer for helpful comments and suggestions.All errors remain mine.

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