Abstract
During dry years, such as 2003 and the early summer of 2011, the Netherlands faces water shortages, salt intrusion, navigation limitations and problems with availability of cooling water for power plants. Considering the changing climate, the frequency of these problems is expected to increase. A policy analysis using an integrated set of models has been launched by the government: the Dutch Delta Programme. The Delta model is the consistent set of models for analysing the decisions related to the long-term fresh water supply and flood risk management of the Netherlands. The country-wide SOBEK-1D hydrodynamic surface water model (LSM) was developed as part of the Delta model and forms the link between the Netherlands Hydrological Instrument (NHI) and impact assessment models for salinity, temperature, water quality, aquatic ecology and navigation. The Delta model provides a computational facility that automates the workflow of running sets of interconnected models for the national policy analysis on fresh water and various regional programmes within the Delta Programme. The Delta model, although being computationally demanding, enabled analyses of the present situation, future scenarios (2050 and 2100) and possible adaptation measures. Moreover, the Delta model has supported consistency between the national analyses and regional analyses in the Delta Programme.
Highlights
In dry years, such as 2003 and the early summer of 2011, the Netherlands faced several water related problems
We will first discuss the design and development of the Dutch Delta model for the Delta Programme on fresh water supply, we will evaluate its ability to support policy making and we will discuss the value of a complex high resolution modelling system for policy making
Special attention was paid to the dry year 2003, since Netherlands Hydrological Instrument (NHI) is used as the central model in the Delta Programme on fresh water, which focuses on solving the issues of drought and salinisation
Summary
In dry years, such as 2003 and the early summer of 2011, the Netherlands faced several water related problems. It proposes a safe and attractive Netherlands, and tomorrow, where fresh water supply, flood risk management and spatial planning are organised effectively (Van Alphen 2012, 2014; Delta Programme Commissioner 2012) This policy analysis requires a quantification of the severity of water related problems in order to set priorities and identify the main tipping points and their timing (Kwadijk et al 2010; Haasnoot et al 2012). This instrument supported the Policy Analysis for Water in the Netherlands (PAWN; Pulles 1985) and simulated water distribution over the country depending on water availability, demand and the capacity of the water system (De Lange et al 2014) Another example is the Danish National Water Resources Model that intends to be a reference for all water related management issues at all management levels within Denmark (Højberg et al 2012). We will first discuss the design and development of the Dutch Delta model for the Delta Programme on fresh water supply, we will evaluate its ability to support policy making and we will discuss the value of a complex high resolution modelling system for policy making
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