The curious story of the 2018 Romanian traditional family referendum: buck-passing and the failure to mobilise voters

Iulian Stănescu

doi:10.33788/sr.18.2.3

Abstract

In 2018, a referendum to revise the Constitution took place in Romania. Just one article was in contention for revision. The goal was to make gay marriage unconstitutional. In the end, the referendum failed due to a low turnout of just 21.1%, below the 30% threshold required for validation. This paper looks into the causes of the low turnout. First, there is an overview of knowns and unknowns, such as lack of exit poll data and issues with the voting population numbers. The bulk of the paper deals with two overlapping narratives about the causes of low turnout - first, a boycott campaign and second, a combination of factors, especially low mobilisation. Using precinct level results, supplemented by pre and post referendum polling data, an examination of evidence for both narratives is put forward. The results provide a case for failure of mobilisation by main political parties and religious organisations, especially the Orthodox Church, despite public statements of support for a “Yes” vote in the referendum. In turn, this was based on a buck-passing strategy by political parties and religious organisations.

Highlights

A referendum to change the Romanian constitution took place on October 6-7, 2018
The referendum failed due to a low turnout of just 21.1%, below the 30% threshold required for validation
The results provide a case for failure of mobilisation by main political parties and religious organisations, especially the Orthodox Church, despite public statements of support for a “Yes” vote in the referendum

Summary

Introduction

A referendum to change the Romanian constitution took place on October 6-7, 2018. The aim of the referendum was to revise just one article of the Constitution. This paper will look into the 2018 referendum from a sociological standpoint on just one issue - the turnout. From them we could mention the clear majority of Romanians that declare themselves against gay marriage in opinion polls by at least a 2 to 1 margin before and after the referendum and Romania’s standing as one of the most religious countries in Europe, on one had, and the low turnout at the referendum, on the other hand. The paper will seek to provide answers to the following question: how was it possible that a majority of 74% of Romania’s population that, according to opinion polls, was against gay marriage turned itself into a minority of just 19.3% of registered voters that cast a “yes” ballot in the referendum? The unusual, even bizarre, wording of the question on the ballot paper, which, together, led to low saliency and confusion

Methodology and data

Variable 6 age 18-34

Findings

Concluding remarks