The COVID-19 pandemic and trade in agricultural products.

Abstract

In this study, we develop a structural gravity model to analyse the effects of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic on international trade in food and agriculture. Using detailed data on trade flows, we estimate the trade impacts of the pandemic for major sectors in food and agriculture. Supply-side impacts on trade caused by reductions in labour tend to be largest in labour-intensive sectors such as meat processing and processed fruit and vegetables. The supply-side export effects are dwarfed by the demand-side import effects, as the recessionary impact of the pandemic drives significant decreases in imports, largely in processed goods and labour-intensive commodities.