Analysis of the current situation of agricultural trade development between China and Ukraine

Abstract

Purpose. As a European granary, Ukraine has rich agricultural resources. China is a country with a large population and has a large demand for food. However, the agricultural trade between the two countries has only achieved rapid development in recent years, and is not closely linked in related trade areas. This article studies the current situation of agricultural trade between the two sides, analyzes the trade data, finds out challenges, and provides suggestions for further promoting trade cooperation between the two sides.
 Methodology / approach. The categories 1, 2, 3, and 4 under the HS Code of the General Merchandise Trade Statistics Database of the People’s Republic of China are used as agricultural trade statistics categories with a time span of 2014–2019 trade data. The relevant data of agricultural product trade are sorted and there is statistics, which objectively explain the current status of trade exchanges between the two sides; the results of the analysis of the trade data are put forward, and the problems existing in the development of China-Ukraine trade and the factors affecting the development are raised.
 Results. According to the results of the analysis, from 2014 to 2019, China’s agricultural products imported from Ukraine accounted for 45.5 % of the total import trade. Agricultural products occupy a very important position in China’s import trade from Ukraine in terms of trade scale. Among them, the import of cereals and other products accounted for 95.7 % of the total imported plant products. Ukraine, the European granary, has become China's main food importer. In 2019, China replaced India as the largest food importer of Ukraine; In terms of export trade, mechanical and electrical products, base metals and light industrial products occupy an important position. From 2014 to 2019, China’s agricultural exports to Ukraine accounted for only 2.6 % of the total export trade, which is a small share. This shows that China and Ukraine have strong complementarity in terms of total trade volume and agricultural product trade. In the future, the two countries can further strengthen cooperation to expand their own advantages and better promote the development of trade between the two countries.
 Originality / scientific novelty. Due to the geographical distance between China and Ukraine, the political instability of the post-independence republic as a former Soviet Union led to less economic and trade exchanges between Ukraine and China. Scientists did not study much on economic and trade relations between China and Ukraine. Most of the research deal with macro trade policy aspects, but the innovation of this article lies in the use of statistical data for empirical analysis, to show the current status of trade between the two sides, and to make recommendations for the further development of bilateral trade.
 Practical value / implications. Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Ukraine in 1992, the relations between the two countries have developed smoothly. In 2011, the two countries established a strategic partnership of cooperation. Subsequently, trade cooperation in various fields has continued to develop, especially in the agricultural product trade. In recent years, total agricultural trade has doubled. In 2019, China became the largest importer of Ukrainian agricultural products. After China proposed the implementation of the «Belt and Road» initiative, Ukraine actively participated in the «Belt and Road» framework agreement. The research on agricultural trade between the two sides will be of great significance to promote further and deeper cooperation between the two sides in the field of agricultural trade and expand and create a wider development space.