Abstract
ABSTRACT Energy systems design is challenged by uncertainties in energy carrier costs. This study explores hydrogen and conventional energy carrier costs, providing global insights with a focus on Belgium. Over two years, European natural gas prices surged 55-fold, while solid biomass prices varied only 1.8-fold over 13 years. Regression analysis (adjusted R 2 >0.9) reveals mutual correlations among energy carriers, allowing for cost ranking relative to the natural gas price. The relationship between electricity and natural gas prices underscores financial challenges for heat pumps in Belgium. Hydrogen cost estimations for 2024 are 43.7, 48.8, 16.4, and 17.5 €/GJH2,LHV for green, yellow (grid), grey and blue hydrogen, respectively. Achieving cost parity between blue and grey hydrogen requires a carbon tax of 67.5–123 €/tonCO2. Present approach incorporates uncertainties in energy carrier costs by varying natural gas price scenarios, facilitating prompt identification of cases for in-depth evaluation in future energy systems.
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