Abstract
Abstract An analysis of nine semesters of temperature and precipitation forecasts at the State University of New York at Albany has been conducted with the goal of investigating the dependence of forecasting skill on education and experience. The results show that forecast skill is largely determined by experience. The relative advantage of highly experienced forecasters is secured by virtue of the larger set of cases from which they may draw upon: given a set of forecast information (e.g., moisture, winds and cloud cover), such a forecaster is in a better position to maximize linear consistency between that information and the expected evolution of surface temperature and precipitation (given similar conditions, make a similar forecast) than someone with less forecasting experience. However, the experienced forecaster also gains substantially by recognizing those instances in which these linear relationships no longer apply and by forecasting accordingly. Such instances can often be recognized using simp...
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