The continuing logic of dual containment

Abstract

Gulf security necessitates a modest US presence to deter aggression in the Persian Gulf while awaiting the collapse of the Iraqi and Iranian regimes. By reducing the resources with which these regimes can buy arms, sanctions are a more cost-effective threat-reduction tool than the alternative, which would be a more robust US military presence. While isolating the more aggressive Iraq, US policy seeks a dialogue with Iran that can be combined with continuing sanctions, much like the Cold War combination of detente and deterrence in the West's approach to the Soviet Union. Gulf security policy should be set by those who put their forces at risk, principally the US, the UK, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, rather than in acrimonious UN debates.