The content analysis of Russian finance

Abstract

Subject. The article focuses on the Russian finance. Objectives. I determine the basics and conditions needed for the Russian finance. Methods. The study is based on the systems approach and the method of statistical, neural network and cluster analysis. Results. Having evaluated growth rates of prices for basic commodities and quotations of the Russian stocks, I determined what underlies the Russian finance as the prevailing trend in Rosneft’s stocks and Urals oil futures. Observing the movement of RTSI, IMOEX, S&P500, WTI oil future, USD/RUB rate, I discovered the gap between IMOEX and RTSI. RTSI remains with the WTI oil futures trend, while IMOEX joined the trend in S&P500. Having analyzed the importance of growth rates of global indices, I understood what is required for their maximum, i.e. the lowest growth rates of RTSI and the highest FTSE100. Considering the global indices and their growth rates, the Russian finance will be viable if RTSI indices are associated with DJIA and US Dollar Index. Structurally, the Russian economy cannot ensure the direct association of RTSI and DJIA. RTSI gets associated with DJIA through S&P500. US Dollar Index is a leading components in this correlation, as it determined the dynamics of USD/RUB and IMOEX. As for the trend in the rate of principal currencies, the basket with USD and CNY seems to be acceptable for the financial regulator. Conclusions and Relevance. The content analysis reveals the threatening intensification of adverse factors that make the Russian economy dependent on oil production, and outlines what can be done to eliminate them. The findings constitute new knowledge and advance the competence of the financial market regulator to make administrative decisions concerning the allocation, reallocation of the public product value and a part of national wealth so as to maintain the Russian finance in terms of form and substance.