Abstract
The potential impact of generative AI across politics, governance and war is enormous, and is the subject of considerable speculation informed by few hard facts. Yet it is possible to identify some major challenges. They include threats to democracies by privately controlled models that gain tremendous power to shape discourse and affect democratic deliberation; enhanced surveillance and propaganda dissemination by authoritarian regimes; new capacities for criminal and terrorist actors to carry out cyber attacks and related disruptions; and transformed war planning and military operations reflecting the accelerated dehumanisation of lethal force. While new innovations historically require time to take root, generative AI is likely to be adopted swiftly. Stakeholders must formulate pragmatic approaches to manage oncoming risks.
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