The Connection between Extreme Precipitation Variability over Monsoon Asia and Large-Scale Circulation Patterns

Sunilkumar Khadgarai,Prabodha Kumar Pradhan,Vinay Kumar

doi:10.3390/atmos12111492

Sunilkumar Khadgarai, Prabodha Kumar Pradhan + Show 1 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12111492

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Abstract

Spatial and temporal variability in precipitation has been dramatically changed due to climate variability and climate change over the global domain. Increasing in extreme precipitation events are pronounced in various regions, including monsoon Asia (MA) in recent decades. The present study evaluated precipitation variability in light of intensity, duration, and frequency with several extreme precipitation climate change indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Indices (ETCCDI) over the MA region. This study uses an improved version (APHRO_V1901) of the Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observation Data Integration Towards Evaluation of extreme events (APHRODITE-2) gridded rainfall product. Results showed that the spatial variability of the extreme precipitation climate change indices is reflected in the annual mean rainfall distribution in MA. Maximum one-day precipitation (R × 1) and precipitation contributed from extremes (R95) depict a peak in decadal mean rainfall values over topography regions. A significant positive trend in R × 1 (with a slope of 0.3 mm/yr) and precipitation greater than the 95th percentile (R95: with a slope of 0.5 mm/yr) are predominantly observed in decadal trends in regional average extreme precipitation climate change indices over MA. Maritime continental countries exhibit an inclined trend in R10, whereas central Asian arid regions show a decreasing tendency in continuous dry days (CDD). The positive trend in R95 is observed over central India, the monsoon region in China, countries that reside over the equator and some parts of Japan, and the Philippines. When comparing the influence of surface temperature (T) and total column water vapor (TCW) on precipitation climate change indices, TCW seems to be a crucial attributor to climate change indices meridional variability. The mutual correlation analysis depicts that precipitation contributed from extremes (R95) strongly correlates in terms of temporal variability with all extreme precipitation indices. Among various global circulation patterns, the prevalent conditions of sea surface temperature (SST) over the equatorial Pacific Ocean have a significant influence on decadal variability in extreme precipitation climate change indices. R10 and R95 possess a relatively significant correlation (0.86 and 0.91) with the Southern Oscillation Index. The maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) shows an increasing trend with a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index.

Highlights

IntroductionClimate change and its socio-economic impacts are the most concerning and challenging issues for several international and national organizations in the global domain
The nature of rainfall variability has been perturbed by all means with possible factors as mentioned, the signature is much pronounced at extreme sides rather than the mean variability of rainfall in recent decades [6]
The trends are represented by several precipitation amounts based climate change indices (annual daily maximum one-day precipitation (R × 1), annual maximum consecutive five-day precipitation (R × 5), annual precipitation contributed from 95 percentile (R95), and Simple Daily Intensity

Summary

Introduction

Climate change and its socio-economic impacts are the most concerning and challenging issues for several international and national organizations in the global domain. A comprehensive understanding of climate variability and reliable future projections are essential to adapt climate change and mitigation challenges. The profound signal of climate change and variability is clearly evidenced by an increase in the number of extreme precipitation events, flash floods, droughts, and heatwaves in recent decades [3,4,5]. The increase in extreme precipitation events is reasonably associated with an increase in mean global temperature. The increase in mean global temperature enhances water vapor holding capacity in the atmosphere and results in variations in precipitation over short time intervals [6]

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