The combined influences of Amazon deforestation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the South America climate variability

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AbstractIn this study we analyse the climatic impact over South America due to Amazon deforestation for positive (PDO+) and negative (PDO−) PDO phases. The regional climatic model RegCM4 was run from 1968 to 2003 for the domain including a great area of the Pacific Ocean and South America, using 50 km as spatial resolution. The Amazon deforestation scenario is that one extrapolated to the 2050 year. Under deforestation, the results show precipitation depletion over the extreme northern South America and precipitation increase over areas to the south, including deforested pixels and east‐southern sectors. These changes are more intense and occupy larger areas during the rainy season. Simulations also indicate that deforestation may impose a drier corridor following the Andes Mountains oriental slopes, from northwestern to south‐southeastern South America, in the rainy season. The impact from deforestation in distinct PDO phases presents the greatest signals over central‐southern South America, in a northwest–southeast direction. Over southeast Brazil, deforestation presents a slightly northeastward displacement of the PDO+ positive precipitation anomalies, intensifying the precipitation anomalies in the north sector and weakening over the south sector. The deforestation effects are more intense in the rainy season and have opposite signals between PDO+ and PDO−. Over the southeast South America, deforestation provides a weaker signal on PDO+ negative precipitation than in PDO−. The increased air temperature over the northern South America, near the northern coast, due to the joint effect of deforestation and PDO variability is more evident during PDO+ dry season than PDO− rainy season. This study illustrates the importance of considering long‐term climate simulations to better understand the role of deforestation in the lower frequency variability over South America.