The Coattail Effect in Multiparty Presidential Elections

Abstract

Many studies have been conducted about the presidential coattail effect in presidential democracies, but few have considered multiparty presidential elections. These few studies find that the effect does exist in multiparty presidential elections but their effect is unevenly distributed among the members of the party coalitions that nominate the presidential candidate. We follow these theoretical insights by presenting the case of Indonesia, the world’s largest multiparty presidential democracy. Using election result data and national survey data, including experimental surveys, we find that in Indonesia the size and direction of the presidential coattail effect depend on whether the party is a core or peripheral member of the coalition, its role in the coalition, and its size.