Abstract
The Chiapas rebellion is in process. Where the Zapatista Army of National Liberation, the Mexican people, and the Mexican state will take it is a matter of intense speculation for many observers. For us, that speculation can be reshaped into a social scientific prognosis thanks to the "structural theory of revolution". This theory has been applied retrospectively to the study of past revolutions in France, Russia, and China (Skocpol, 1979), Mexico (Goldfrank), Nicaragua, Cuba, and Grenada (Meeks). Our application of this theory differs in that we are studying an ongoing process and formulating a prognosis.
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