The characteristics of the new dual-cycle development pattern and systemic financial risk based on TVP-SVAR and MS-VAR model analyses

Abstract

The new development pattern of the dual cycle is an important strategic deployment by the Chinese government in response to the complex and changing economic environment and a new stage of economic development. Based on the perspective of this new dual-cycle development pattern, this paper explores the time-varying nonlinear relationship between this new development pattern and systemic financial risk by constructing two models: the TVP-SVAR-SV and the MS-VAR. The empirical results show that, first, there was a significant negative impulse response effect between the new dual-cycle development pattern and systemic financial risk. The inhibitory effects of the domestic cycle and short-term pulse response were more significant than those of the international cycle and medium- and long-term pulse responses. In addition, the inhibitory effect of the new dual-cycle development pattern on systemic financial risk exerted different impact effects at different timepoints, with significant variability. Second, there was a significant nonlinear relationship between the new development pattern and systemic financial risk. The MSIH(2)-VAR(1) model identified two regional states: the financial risk release stage and the financial risk accumulation stage. This effect lasted longer in zone 2 (financial risk accumulation phase), with a sample size of more than 60 % of the total sample and a duration of 6.12. Third, in the impulse response analysis of different zones, a mutually reinforcing effect was found between the domestic and international cycles, and both exerted a significant suppressive effect on systemic financial risk, which was more significant in zone 1. The findings of this paper have important theoretical and practical significance for constructing and perfecting the new dual-cycle development pattern, promoting the high-quality development of China's financial market, and preventing the accumulation and occurrence of systemic financial risk.