Abstract
To calculate the environmental capacity of the estuaries of Haizhou Bay in northern Jiangsu, China in 2006 and 2016, this study employed the share ratio approach and established a tidal hydrodynamic model and a water quality diffusion model by the Delft 3D software to perform the numerical simulation. The article compared the environmental capacity in 2006 and 2016, and analyzed the changes between these years. The scenario analysis method was used to explore the influence of factors on the environmental capacity and quantify the contribution of each influencing factor. The results show that the theoretical environmental capacity was reduced by 32.718 tons/day (28.56%) from 114.571 tons/day in 2006 to 81.853 tons/day in 2016. The remaining environmental capacity was reduced by 6.955 tons/day (56.92%) from 12.219 tons/day in 2006 to 5.264 tons/day in 2016. The changes in topography and the amount of runoff into the ocean through the estuaries of Haizhou Bay between 2006 and 2016 reduced the total environmental capacity of the estuaries by an influence ratio of 0.363:0.637. The study will provide the management of the marine environment of Haizhou Bay with information to control the aggregate pollutants flowing into the ocean and support the social and economic sustainable development of Haizhou Bay.
Highlights
The ocean is the most low-lying area on the Earth, and land-based pollutants correspondingly end up flowing into the ocean under the influence of gravity
Scenario analysis was used to examine the extent to which factors such as the runoff of rivers flowing into the ocean, land reclamation, and river water quality affects the changes in marine environmental capacity in Haizhou Bay
The share ratio field and response coefficient field of each point source were obtained through numerical simulation, alongside the environmental capacity of pollutants discharged into the ocean according to the targets of water quality and the existing concentration
Summary
The ocean is the most low-lying area on the Earth, and land-based pollutants correspondingly end up flowing into the ocean under the influence of gravity. Scenario analysis was used to examine the extent to which factors such as the runoff of rivers flowing into the ocean, land reclamation, and river water quality affects the changes in marine environmental capacity in Haizhou Bay. We assumed that one factor in the amount of sewage or topography remains unchanged, and calculated the environmental capacity of a certain scenario. We compared it with the actual environmental capacity in order to calculate the influence ratio of each factor on the environmental capacity These findings will provide a reference for similar future studies, and the management of the marine environment of Haizhou Bay to control the aggregate pollutants flowing into the ocean and support the social and economic sustainable development of Haizhou Bay
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