Abstract
Understanding historical and future drought patterns is crucial to acclimation and the mitigation of drought. The negative impact of China’s droughts on the social economy has attracted attention; however, there is still no comprehensive or long-term monitoring pattern for future droughts. Here we evaluated the precipitation and temperature simulation capability of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and evaluated the temporal and spatial pattern of droughts during 1961–2099 across China. The results show that the multi-model ensemble mean (MME) is more representative of the observed precipitation and temperatures across China than the single climate model. China experienced an overall drying trend in the historical period. After 1991, the drought frequency (DF), drought duration (DD), and drought intensity (DI) in the northwest of the Inland River Basin and in the Yangtze River Basin increased significantly. Compared with the historical period, China will suffer more frequent drought events, although the DD and DI will be weakened under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5, while China will experience longer DD and more serious drought events under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. The Hai River Basin and Huai River Basin are expected to have more serious drought trends in summer. Compared with historical periods, the drought trend will increase by 2.9–5.7 times and 1.1–4.2 times, respectively. The results can be used for decision making regarding future drought control.
Highlights
Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutralThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2021) in its 6th AssessmentReport reported that the global surface temperature (GST) was 1.09 ◦ C (0.95–1.20 ◦ C) higher in 2011–2020 than that in 1850–1900
These results demonstrate that the model ensemble mean (MME) had a strong representativeness in the simulation of monthly temperature and precipitation in the historical period across China
The precipitation and temperature simulation capability of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) was evaluated using gridded precipitation and temperature data generated from meteorological stations
Summary
Report reported that the global surface temperature (GST) was 1.09 ◦ C (0.95–1.20 ◦ C) higher in 2011–2020 than that in 1850–1900. An accelerated hydrological cycle can be expected in the context of global warming [1,2], which may potentially increase the frequency and/or intensity of climate extremes, such as floods and droughts, at regional and global scales [3,4]. Global economic losses caused by droughts have been estimated to be as high as USD. Severe, and extreme drought events have occurred frequently in China, causing huge social and economic losses [9]. Evaluating the ability of precipitation and temperature with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations
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