The Changing Structure of Political Conflicts in the South of Europe: An Analysis of Issue Voting in Four Countries

Abstract

This research analyses the demand-side of politics in Southern European countries, investigating how three relevant voting determinants have changed throughout time. The focus is on Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain, and the examined variables are the European Union, immigration and state intervention in the economy. The period of analysis is 2009–2019 and we identify the structure of political conflicts from the point of view of voters. We find that the electoral support of parties has been increasingly influenced by party positions on immigration (with the partial exception of Portugal), but not on the European Union. Moreover, the issue of ‘state control and regulation of the economy’ is boosting its explanatory power in all the countries investigated in this study. Thus, new issue determinants have gradually reshaped the system of voting preferences across Southern Europe, with voter demands becoming more likely to match party supply on immigration and economic interventionism.