The Changing Interests of the Regional Powers and the Resolution of the Afghan Conflict

Abstract

T he conflict in Afghanistan is extremely complex. Involving numerous Afghan components and intense regional rivalries, it had a very salient Cold War dimension during the 1980s. At each level, it involves multiple actors with diverse objectives. Furthermore, the conflict's domestic, regional, and global dimensions continuously interact with each other, resulting in its great complexity. In this article I am concerned with the interaction of the interests of regional powers and their impact on the resolution of the Afghan conflict. There is a consensus among scholars and policymakers that Iran, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia are the major regional powers with substantial interest and sustained involvement in the Afghan conflict. Although India was supportive of the communist regime in Kabul, she never had the kind of influence in the conflict that Iran, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia have enjoyed. Similarly, although Turkey and Uzbekistan have become relevant to the Afghan conflict during the past two years, their influence is still rather insignificant. Thus, I will focus on the interactions of Iranian, Pakistani, and Saudi interests. As far as the involvement of regional powers is concerned, three phases are identifiable in the development of the Afghan conflict. Phase one began with the Soviet invasion in December 1979 and ended with the 1988 signing of the Geneva Accords, which provided the framework for the withdrawal of Soviet forces from Afghanistan. Phase two started with the beginning of the withdrawal of Soviet forces in mid-1988 and ended with the collapse of Najibullah's regime in April 1992. Phase three began with the Mujahideen's as-