Abstract
The ongoing conflict in Afghanistan poses a great danger to the Afghanistan state itself as well as for the neighboring countries. A decreasing interest from the United States of America, NATO and other key players due to a long war and other geopolitical challenges will leave Afghanistan with the minimum outer support for the future. The science of conflict resolution is offering a variety of theories that could lead endless wars and conflicts to an end. The ongoing conflict in Afghanistan is challenging those theories, while the resolution is crucial for the Afghanistan people right now. But are those theories reflected in the current actions of the US, NATO and Afghanistan governments? And do those theoretical actions lead to a better future regarding conflict resolution? The purpose of this article was to analyze the current policies of third parties influencing the current conflict in Afghanistan to determine the most relevant conflict prevention theory that could support conflict resolution most effectively in the future. To achieve the mentioned purpose, the following tasks were designed. First, the most relevant conflict prevention theories, applicable to the Afghanistan case, were analyzed and the main characteristics were identified. Secondly, the actions of NATO, US and Afghanistan, connected to the conflict resolution efforts, were identified and analyzed. After that, actions mentioned above were compared with theoretical approaches from different theories and certain trends were detected. Later on, research was focused to detect particular elements that were relevant to each theory and further actions concentrated on identifying the trend of these elements for each theory, while doing a comparative comparison analysis, which was based on selected timeframes. Afterward, the trends for each theory were compared and – by doing this – the most applicable theory was identified that could be later used in practice to resolve the current conflict. Research showed that:All conflict prevention theories showed that resolution is possible only if all parties are involved in the processes and practically commit to actions. Currently this is not the case in Afghanistan.Some conflict resolution theories consider similar actions that currently the NATO, US and Afghanistan governments are using in the region.One of the analyzed conflict resolution theories could be applied practically in the Afghanistan case. The conflict prevention theory is the most flexible and has the widest action set in comparison with other theories.The conflict prevention theory reflects the current US actions in Afghanistan, when the decreasing US support for the Afghanistan government in security, governance and in other sectors influences the weakening security situation. The effectiveness of conflict prevention theory is low due to the Taliban’s absence in the negotiations, and this fact does not influence any recognition that the most relevant theory that could support current conflict resolution in the most effective way in Afghanistan is the conflict prevention theory.
Highlights
The ongoing conflict in Afghanistan poses a great danger to the Afghanistan state itself as well as for the neighboring countries
The science of conflict resolution is offering a variety of theories that could lead endless wars and conflicts to an end
The ongoing conflict in Afghanistan is challenging those theories, while the resolution is crucial for the Afghanistan people
Summary
Šiuo metu vis dar teberusenantis konfliktas Afganistane kelia daug rūpesčių tarptautinei bendruomenei, JAV, gretimoms valstybėms ir kitiems regiono veikėjams. Atlikta šešių konflikto sureguliavimo teorijų pritaikomumo analizė ir tirtas NATO, JAV, Afganistano valdžios pasirinktas būdas sureguliuoti konfliktą parodė, kad praktiniai veiksmai, prastėjanti saugumo situacija ir kiti objektyvūs reiškiniai šiuo metu neveda šalies prie taikos, o viena iš teorijų – konflikto prevencijos teorija – gali būti realiausiai pritaikoma siekiant suvaldyti konfliktą Afganistane. Pirmoje straipsnio dalyje analizuojamos pagrindinės konflikto sureguliavimo teorijų nuostatos ir jų esminiai bruožai, antroje dalyje nagrinėjamos NATO, JAV, Afganistano oficialiosios valdžios pastangos paveikti, spręsti vykstantį konfliktą, nustatoma, ar tarptautinės bendruomenės ir Afganistano naudojami veiksmai sureguliuoti konfliktui yra tapatūs tam tikroms teorinėms konflikto sureguliavimo teorijų nuostatoms. Trečioje straipsnio dalyje analizuojamos konflikto sureguliavimo teorijų praktinio pritaikomumo matavimo galimybės ir tiriama kiekvienai teorijai būdingų parametrų verčių kaita laike – tai leidžia nustatyti teorijų tapatumą dabartinei saugumo situacijai regione, taip identifikuojant tinkamiausią teoriją Afganistano konflikto situacijai siekiant tvarios taikos regione. Bendruomenės ryšių teorija tarp nesutariančių šalių gerinimas. Didesnės tolerancijos skleidimas visuomenėje
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have