The changing geography of the Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games in a warmer world

Abstract

The Olympic Winter Games (OWG) and the Paralympic Winter Games (PWG) are showcases for winter sports. With their high dependence on weather conditions, accelerating climate change poses a challenge to these mega-events. Two indicators are used to assess the climate reliability of locations to host the Games (OWG in February, PWG in March) in the future under a low (RCP 2.6) and high (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenario. Climate change will alter the geography of the Games over the twenty-first century. In a low-emission scenario, only 13 of 21 locations remain climate reliable for the OWG in the 2050s and 12 in the 2080s, whereas only 10 are reliable for the PWG (both in the 2050s and 2080s). The impact of a business-as-usual high-emission scenario is far greater, reducing the number of locations reliable for the OWG to 10 in the 2050s and 8 in the 2080s, with even fewer reliable for PWG (8 in the 2050s and only 4 in the 2080s). Adaptive responses are considered, including strengthening the climatological assessment requirements in forthcoming bid processes, the unification of the OWG and PWG (in the month of February), and considering dual host countries/regions.