The Changing Electoral Landscape of the Western United States

Abstract

The Western periphery constitutes one of the primary electoral sections of the United States in presidential history. The Western periphery, although at times volatile, emerged as a Republican stronghold beginning with Dwight Eisenhower's regional electoral sweeps in the 1950s. This electoral epoch of Republican popularity in the West has been referred to as the new Western normal vote. Despite long-sustained presidential successes, since the 1988 presidential election, Democratic presidential candidates have been able to win certain states in the Republican-dominated region. This research examines the historical dynamics of Republican support in the West by identifying shifts in voting behavior between past and present epochs. We attempt to explain recent changes by exploring the historical character of the West, its demographic dynamics, and the recent turbulence within the Republican Party. County-level election returns from 1952 to 2016 are used, along with traditional and folded T-mode factor analysis, spatial regression modeling, and cartographic analysis. We conclude that the region's normal vote is deteriorating, a new electoral pattern is emerging, and these developments correspond with increasing volatility within the Republican Party.