The change in the relationship between temperature and respiratory diseases among children in Guangzhou, China.

Abstract

Temperature is closely associated with respiratory disease (RD) in children, but few studies have examined whether the relationship between ambient temperature and RD in children changed after the COVID-19 epidemic. The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between temperature and RD in children after the COVID-19 epidemic in Guangzhou, China. We used a distributed lag nonlinearmodel to compare the relationship between temperature and RD among children in Guangzhou from 2018 to 2022. The results showed an S-shaped relationship between temperature and RD in the post-COVID-19 period with a reference minimum risk at a temperature of 21°C and an increasing relative risk (RR) at extremely low temperature (ELT) and extremely high temperature (EHT). The highest RR associated with EHT was 1.935 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.314-2.850) at a lag of 0-14days. The on-the-day lag effects were found to be strongest at the lag 0day of EHT with a RR of 1.167 (95% CI: 1.021-1.334). Furthermore, each 1°C increase in post-COVID-19 temperature increased the risk of RD by 8.2% (95% CI: 1.044-1.121). Our study provides evidence that the relationship between temperature and RD in children in Guangzhou changed after the COVID-19 epidemic, and high temperature is more likely to cause RD in children. Relevant government departments and parents should understand the relationship between temperature and RD in children and develop new preventive measures.