Abstract
The so far largely unabated emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are expected to increase global temperatures substantially over this century. We quantify the patterns of increases for 246 globally-representative cities in the Sustainable Healthy Urban Environments (SHUE) database. We used an ensemble of 18 global climate models (GCMs) run under a low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) emissions scenario to estimate the increase in monthly mean temperatures by 2050 and 2100 based on 30-year averages. Model simulations were from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Annual mean temperature increases were 0.93 degrees Celsius by 2050 and 1.10 degrees Celsius by 2100 under RCP2.6, and 1.27 and 4.15 degrees Celsius under RCP8.5, but with substantial city-to-city variation. By 2100, under RCP2.6 no city exceeds an increase in Tmean > 2 degrees Celsius (relative to a 2017 baseline), while all do under RCP8.5, some with increases in Tmean close to, or even greater than, 7 degrees Celsius. The increases were greatest in cities of mid to high latitude, in humid temperate and dry climate regions, and with large seasonal variation in temperature. Cities are likely to experience large increases in hottest month mean temperatures under high GHG emissions trajectories, which will often present substantial challenges to adaptation and health protection.
Highlights
The analysis is based on data from the Sustainable Health Urban Environments (SHUE) project, which has developed a database of information on a globally-distributed sample of cities [8]
By 2050, there was considerable overlap in the temperature increases experienced in Sustainable Healthy Urban Environments (SHUE) cities under and RCP8.5 (Figure 2).overlap
Figure mean in the hottest month under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 relative to 2017 forcities citiesin indifferent differentBailey’s
Summary
Of energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions [2] They are a key focus for actions to help mitigate climate change—actions that have the potential for appreciable ancillary benefits to public health through reduction of harmful exposures (e.g., air pollution) and promotion of healthier behaviours in such areas as diet and physical activity [3]. The analysis is based on data from the Sustainable Health Urban Environments (SHUE) project, which has developed a database of information on a globally-distributed sample of cities [8]. The broad aim of the SHUE project is to support research on the responses to environmental risks to health and the potential impacts for health of strategies for sustainable urban development. The database contains a wide range of information on city characteristics, environmental risks (such as air pollution), and markers of urban form and energy use. This paper describes the climate change data held in the database and demonstrates its application to improving understanding of the benefits of strong climate change mitigation efforts
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