The Causes of Agricultural Trade Growth between China and Central Asia under the Background of "the Belt and Road" -- An Empirical Analysis Based on CMS Model

Abstract

Central Asia is rich in land, solar and thermal resources, as well as its agricultural labor force. It has superior conditions for agricultural production, which has strong complementarity with China in the agricultural field. Under the current complex international economic and political situation, strengthening cooperation between the two sides in the agricultural field can achieve win-win cooperation, which is also conducive to reversing the situation that developed countries restrict China's agricultural trade. The constant market share model (CMS) is used in this paper to empirical analyze the causes of agricultural trade growth between China and Central Asia from 1995 to 2021 based on UN COMTRADE data. The results show that the interaction between the promotion of the import scale of agricultural products and the improvement of its competitiveness is the main reason for the growth of agricultural exports of both sides; For classified agricultural products, the factors affecting the growth of export volume are different. The main factors restricting export volume growth of China and Central Asia are insufficient competitiveness and unreasonable export commodity structure respectively. In the new era, both sides should strengthen communication and cooperation, adjust the export structure of agricultural products and stabilize the competitiveness of it to further improve trade volume growth.