The causal effects of religious service attendance on prosocial behaviours in New Zealand: A national longitudinal study

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We investigate the causal effects of religious service attendance on prosocial behaviours using longitudinal data from a nationally representative sample of 33,198 New Zealanders collected between 2018 and 2021. Our study innovates in three ways: (1) we use longitudinal rather than cross-sectional data; (2) we incorporate measures of help received alongside self-reported giving; and (3) our statistical models are designed to address causal questions, rather than simply to describe change over time. We model causal contrasts for three hypothetical interventions – increasing, decreasing, or maintaining religious service attendance – and assess their effects on eight distinct prosocial domains. Study 1 focuses on self-reported charitable donations and volunteering. Studies 2 and 3 examine receiving help – both personal and financial – from family, friends, and the wider community. Across all analyses, we find that the causal effects of religious service attendance are notably smaller than cross-sectional correlations suggest. However, even modest increases in regular attendance would result in charitable donations equivalent to approximately 4% of the New Zealand Government’s annual spending – a considerable public benefit. By applying robust methods for causal inference to national-scale panel data, our study provides insights that can inform public policy about the social functions of religious participation and advances a methodological framework for investigating the social consequences of cultural practices.