Abstract

Dr. Annette Schaper is a Senior Research Associate at the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt (PRIF), Germany. During the next few decades, the international community faces the challenge of dealing with unprecedented amounts of inadequately secured fissile materials. This challenge has emerged as the result of sweeping nuclear arms reductions in Russia and the United States, insufficiently safeguarded civilian and military nuclear installations in the newly independent states (NIS), and the rapid development of the nuclear industry in East Asia. Stockpiles of such material are likely to continue growing, as further RussianAmerican nuclear reduction agreements (beyond START II) are likely, and both Moscow and Washington are all but certain to declare additional weapons-grade nuclear material excess to their defense requirements. So far, however, many aspects of these activities remain under national control and are not transparent to the international community. All the laudable progress made thus far toward nuclear disarmament, therefore, remains reversible, should the international situation deteriorate.

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