The burden of refraction disorders in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021: A systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease 2021

Abstract

BackgroundRefraction disorders are common eye conditions that cause blurred vision and, if left uncorrected, remain a leading cause of moderate to severe visual impairment worldwide. Despite this, a comprehensive assessment of the associated burden is lacking. This study aims to describe and predict the burden and regional distribution of refraction disorders using data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. MethodsThis study utilised data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 on refraction disorders from 1990 to 2021. We analysed the prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of refraction disorders and calculated the corresponding average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) in different gender and age groups across 204 countries and territories and 21 geographical regions. We employed the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model to predict the future burden of refraction disorders. ResultsFrom 1990 to 2021, the global age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of refraction disorders decreased from 2053.56 (95% Uncertainty Interval [UI], 1835.31 to 2275.80) to 1919.66 (95% UI, 1715.24 to 2135.28), with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of -0.21% (95% Confidence Interval [CI], -0.23% to -0.19%). The age-standardized DALY (Disability-Adjusted Life Years) rate also declined from 88.04 (95% UI, 62.19 to 125.15) to 79.11 (95% UI, 54.94 to 114.14) with an AAPC of -0.33% (95% CI, -0.36% to -0.31%). Refraction disorders remain a significant burden in regions with lower Socio-demographic Index (SDI), particularly in parts of South Asia and Western Sub-Saharan Africa. Older individuals and females are disproportionately affected. The age-standardized DALY rate is expected to decline steadily before stabilising at approximately 77.94 per 100,000 by 2030.