The Bulgarian anomaly: demographic transition and current fertility.

Abstract

A historical fertility pattern in Europe has been described in which relatively late and nonuniversal marriage served to hold aggregate fertility levels far below those existing elsewhere in the world. This pattern included advanced age of marriage of women a small difference in the age of husband and wife and a relatively large proportion remaining single through the fertile years. Sometime around 1880 fertility within marriage began to decline from high levels while the marriage rate was high. It is apparent that in 1900 the marriage rate in Bulgaria was higher than in western countries; by 1960 the level of marital fertility was lower than any western country except Sweden. In most European countries around 1930 the proportion of people married at earlier ages rose thus reducing the number who passed through the fertile years without formal marital experience. There was also a gradual but dramatic decline in crude birth rates and reproduction rates in some Eastern European countries from 33.7 in Bulgaria for instance in 1880 to 1.05 in 1970. Eastern Europe seems to have bypassed the demographic stage where aggregate fertility declines as the result of a sharp decline in the proportion married; instead a pattern of high and relatively early nuptiality has been maintained but eventually low overall fertility rates have been achieved by means of very low levels of marital fertility. The author explains the role of legal abortion systems in causing recent fertility declines while at the same time bringing out historically grounded demographic characteristics which set Bulgaria apart from the other European countries. These characteristics include: 1) the steep decline of infant mortality during the postwar period 2) the pattern of landholding which resulted from the persistance of the extended household organization providing men and women with incentives for early marriage and 3) small initial landholdings which could have produced concern for birth limitation. Coitus interruptus and use of illegal abortions are offered as the principal explanations of the actual achievement of low marital fertility in the 19th-20th centuries. Legalization of abortion had a relatively limited effect on aggregate fertility since a high degree of control over fertility already existed in the 1950s. 2 explanations offered for Bulgarian fertility patterns are: 1) standardization across countries indicates the structurally-specific birth rates for Bulgaria were much lower than crude rates indicated at the time of the abortion reform suggesting that the extent of unwanted births was already low and 2) there is evidence that induced abortion may have played a larger role in the original development of low fertility. Caution is required in drawing conclusions for developing countries from such a narrow experience.