The buffer effect and the selection of protected areas for waterbirds in Britain

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The buffer effect predicts that where the reproductive success and survivorship of a species vary between potential habitats, sites will be sequentially filled according to a preference hierarchy. Once favoured sites reach saturation, numbers on the less-suitable/poorer quality sites will show a greater rate of increase compared with those on favoured sites. Supporting evidence for a buffer effect is readily available in the literature for many species, although this is generally restricted to small-scale analyses. In this paper we test for a buffer effect on a national scale for 19 species of waterbirds regularly wintering in the UK for which populations have increased nationally. The results provide little support for the effect, with only four species showing significant negative correlations. Nonetheless, a number of factors are likely to confound the occurrence/identification of a buffer effect for these species, including site area and data limitations. By contrast, for the majority of these 19 species, those sites where initial population totals are largest are also those with the fastest rates of population increase. Encouragingly, these sites are, therefore, more likely to be classified and managed as Special Protection Areas (SPAs) or Ramsar sites using the current numerical criteria for identifying such conservation areas.