The biphasic pattern of age-specific malignant brain tumor mortality rates.

Abstract

Many aging-associated neurologic disorders, including primary malignant brain tumors (MBT), share a common biphasic age-specific mortality rate pattern: initially increasing exponentially with age, and then declining. A modeling study using MBT mortality was conducted to determine if the observed biphasic pattern of MBT age-specific mortality rates emerges if one assumes that there exists a population subset that is inherently susceptible to MBT, and that the risk of mortality from MBT in that susceptible population subset continues to increase exponentially with age. A hypothetical population was subjected to 1988 general mortality risks. A population subset susceptible to MBT was subjected to both exponentially increasing 1988 general and MBT mortality risks. Expected MBT age-specific mortality rates in the total population (both general and MBT susceptible subsets) were determined. Expected MBT age-specific mortality rates in the total population initially increase exponentially with age, and then decline. Moreover, when the size of the MBT-susceptible population subset was set at 1/125 of the size of the general population size, the modeled pattern of age-specific MBT mortality rates closely mimicked the observed pattern of age-specific MBT mortality rates. The observed biphasic pattern of age-specific MBT mortality rates can be explained by the existence of an MBT-susceptible population subset in whom the risk of MBT mortality increases exponentially with age and population subset depletion occurs.