The Basic Dynamics of the Presidential Nomination Process: Putting the 2000 Races in Perspective

Abstract

This article provides a broad overview of the presidential nomination process, focusing on how it finally settles on a candidate. In nomination races since 1980, two pieces of information have a very good track record for predicting the eventual nominee: the nomination preferences of national party identifiers, as recorded in public opinion polls, and bow much money each candidate had raised during the “invisible primary ”period that precedes the actual delegate selection process. In seven of the past ten races, in fat, the eventual nominee was leading in the polls for at least a year before the first delegates were selected, Finally, the article examines the effect of the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. It concludes that while a victoy or even a second-place finish in New Hampshire has a substantial impact on a candidate's long-run fortunes, the effect of Iowa is much smaller and more contingent.