The asymmetric relationship between globalization, tourism, CO2 emissions, and economic growth in Turkey: implications for environmental policy making.

Abstract

The current study examines the importance of asymmetric modelling of tourism-CO2 emissions relationship by incorporating real income per capita and the newly developed globalization index in a multivariate time series model between 1970 and 2014 for Turkey. We used a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model in analyzing the asymmetric cointegration association between the selected variables. Using Hatemi-J (2012) asymmetric causality testing method, we examined the asymmetric causal relationship among the variables. The empirical outcomes provide evidence for the existence of asymmetric long-run cointegration nexus among the variables. Asymmetric causality results show that both the positive and negative shock of tourism influence the CO2 emissions in the long-term, while in the short-term, only the negative shock of tourism contributes to CO2 emissions. Also discussed are the policy implications with regard to Turkey's environmental and economic policies.