The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from the United Kingdom*

Abstract

AbstractIn this paper, I analyse how the response of the UK economy to monetary policy shocks depends on the state of the economy, or the sign or size of the shock. Monetary policy shocks are identified by extending the Cloyne and Hürtgen (2016) approach to allow for time variation in the central bank reaction function. These shocks are used to estimate impulse responses by local projections to investigate asymmetries in the transmission mechanism. The main result is that shocks that occur during economic booms have significantly larger effects than those that occur during recessions. In addition, I find that expansionary shocks are more powerful than contractionary shocks, and that large shocks have a proportionally weaker effect on output than small shocks. The results are robust to alternative monetary policy shock identification methods and variations in the empirical specification.