La Politique Monétaire Marocaine à-t-Elle un Effet Symétrique ou Asymétrique sur la Production et les Prix ?

Abstract

Many macroeconomic models predict asymmetric or non-linear effects of monetary policy on output and prices. This paper attempts to examine whether Moroccan monetary policy have symmetric or asymmetric effects on prices and output. We test all the three main forms of asymmetry discussed in the literature. Moreover, the research investigates some hybrid cases in order to deepen the analysis of asymmetric impact of monetary policy. We follow Cover(1992)’s methodology but with some modifications. We find evidence in favor of asymmetric effects of monetary policy decision on output and prices. The results do not support the asymmetry related to the sign of monetary policy. However, the findings indicate the presence of asymmetric effects with regard to stages of business cycle. This result was corroborated by those of the hybrid case. We also show that while the small and big money supply shocks have a symmetric effect on output, prices respond asymmetrically to those shocks. The estimations of the hybrid case give further insight that the small and big negative monetary policy shocks have an asymmetric effect on output comparatively to small and big positive shocks. As far as prices are concerned, the impact of big positive and negative monetary policy shocks is symmetric whereas the effect of small positive and negative shocks is asymmetric.