Abstract
Article history: Received June 4, 2014 Accepted 10 October 2014 Available online October 14 2014 Energy supply security is one of the strategic issues of all states. Beside the energy supply management, the section that has received less attention is energy demand management. According to importance of residential and commercial sectors in energy consumption, in the present study energy demand of these sectors is estimated using linear and exponential functions and the coefficients are obtained from PSO algorithms. 72 different scenarios with various inputs are investigated. Data from the years 1968 to 2011 are used to develop the models and select the suitable scenario. Results show that an exponential model developed based on particle swarm optimization algorithm has had the best performance. Based on the best scenario the energy demand of residential and commercial sectors is estimated 1718 Mega barrel of crude oil equivalent up to the year 2032. © 2014 Growing Science Ltd. All rights reserved. Particle swarm optimization Forecasting Energy
Highlights
Efficient use of energy is a factor that can significantly influence on the sustainable development of countries and not one should disregard this important issue on its way towards development
0.0041 where ER, energy consumption in residential-commercial sector, VAT, Value added of all economic sectors, BLD, Investment for the value of made constructions, PO, Population, PAPL, Electrical and Fuel Appliance price index
The best scenario for predicting the energy demand of residential-commercial sector of Iran is derived from the exponential model simulated by particle swarm optimization algorithm
Summary
Efficient use of energy is a factor that can significantly influence on the sustainable development of countries and not one should disregard this important issue on its way towards development. Due to the increase in population and significant use of energy in various economic sectors in recent years, energy has become the center of attention as the most important production factor (Assareh et al, 2010). Determining the factors influencing on required energy in a country is necessary in management of energy supplement. According to the fact that the energy demand procedure and factors influencing it follow vague and complicated patterns, identifying efficient tools for proper energy consumption is essential. It seems necessary to find efficient tools to identify energy demands, accurately. In Iran, energy estimation in residential and commercial sectors constitutes 34 percent of the total energy consumption (Azadeh & Tarverdian, 2007)
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