A novel COVID-19 infection-forecasting model based on artificial neural networks

Abstract

The COVID-19 surge has mostly affected people and wreaked havoc on multiple sectors of the global economy. This study uses artificial neural networks (ANN) to develop COVID-19 prediction models to minimize the perilous situation. With positive infection data, these hybrid artificial neural network models looked at COVID-19 cases in Andhra Pradesh, India. Then, COVID-19 data were divided into training and testing for simulation. The developed model that takes the previous 14 days into account outperforms the others, depending on the results. According to the developed ANN models for Andhra Pradesh districts, the prediction model that works well and yields positive results is the one that receives lower values of error metrics like MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE and higher values of R2. The hybrid neural network model that considers the previous 14 days for prophecy has suggested anticipating daily positive suffering, notably in areas of Andhra Pradesh, as a result of the collected data. Linear regression, ARIMA, and LSTM have been used for model assessment. The proposed 14-day model statistically surpasses all metrics in RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and R2. This study showed that an ANN-based model can predict the COVID-19 outbreak as well as other epidemics.