The application of meteorological data and search index data in improving the prediction of HFMD: A study of two cities in Guangdong Province, China

Abstract

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a public health issue in China, and its incidence in Guangdong Province is higher than the national average. Previous studies have found climatic factors have an influential role in the transmission of HFMD. Internet search technology has been shown to predict some infectious disease epidemics and is a potential resource in tracking epidemics in countries where the use of Internet search index data is prevalent. This study aims to improve the prediction of HFMD in two Chinese cities, Shantou and Shenzhen in Guangdong Province, applying both meteorological data and Baidu search indices to create a HFMD forecasting model. To this end, the relationship between meteorological factors and HFMD was found to be linear in both cities, while the relationship between search engine data and HFMD was not consistent. The results of our study suggest that using both Internet search and meteorological data can improve the prediction of HFMD incidence. Using comparative analysis of both cities, we posit that improved quality search indices enhance prediction of HFMD.