Abstract
BackgroundThe transmission rate seasonality is an important index for transmission dynamics in many childhood infections, and has been widely studied in industrialized countries. However, it has been neglected in the study of pathogens in China.MethodsTo understand the transmission dynamics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD), we examined the transmission rate seasonality of HFMD in three provinces, Henan, Anhui and Chongqing, in China, using a dynamical stochastic SIR model. We investigated potential driving factors, including school terms, the Chinese Spring Festival period, meteorological factors and population flux for their effects on the HFMD transmission seasonality using multiple regression models.ResultsThe transmission rate of HFMD had complex seasonality with one large major peak in March and one small peak in autumn. School terms, the Chinese Spring Festival period, population flux and meteorological factors had combined effects on the HFMD transmission seasonality in mainland China. The school terms reflects the seasonal contact rate in Children, while the population flux and the Chinese Spring Festival period reflect the seasonal contact rate in population. They drove HFMD transmission rate seasonality in different time periods of the year in China. Contact rate seasonality in population dominated effects on HFMD transmission in February and March. The dramatic increase in transmission rate during February coincides with the Chinese Spring Festival period and high population flux in this month. The contact rate seasonality in children dominated effects on the transmission in the other months of the year in Chongqing. Meteorological factors can not solely explain the seasonality in HFMD transmission in mainland China; however, they may have combined effects with school terms and the highway passenger traffic on the transmission rate in Anhui during the fall semester.ConclusionThe transmission rate of HFMD in three provinces in China had complex seasonality. The Chinese Spring Festival period, population flux and (or) school terms explained the majority of the transmission rate seasonality of HFMD, and they drove HFMD transmission rate seasonality in different time periods of the year. The Chinese Spring Festival period dominantly caused the dramatic increase of the HFMD transmission rate during February.
Highlights
The transmission rate seasonality is an important index for transmission dynamics in many childhood infections, and has been widely studied in industrialized countries
Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a childhood infectious disease primarily caused by enterovirus 71 (EV71) and coxsackievirus A16 (CA16)
The great increase in the transmission rate in February corresponded to the Chinese Spring Festival period, school winter vacation and the high level of highway passenger traffic in this month (Fig. 2d-f )
Summary
The transmission rate seasonality is an important index for transmission dynamics in many childhood infections, and has been widely studied in industrialized countries. It has been neglected in the study of pathogens in China. In China, an average of about two million HFMD cases were reported every year since the establishment of the national enhanced surveillance system in 2008 [1, 9]. HFMD has the highest yearly reported incidence among childhood infections in China, and is one of the leading causes of death in childhood infections in the country [10, 11]. A total of 2,468,174 cases and 220 deaths of HFMD were still reported in China in 2016 [11]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
