The Application of Fuzzy Logic With the Mamdani Method to Determine the Risk Zone for The Spread of Covid-19 in North Sumatra

Abstract

The method fuzzy is one part of the fuzzy inference system that is useful for drawing conclusions or the best decision in uncertain problems. Currently, about 200 countries in the world are experiencing the Covid-19 pandemic. Various policies were carried out to overcome this. In addition to the health protocols that are always implemented, the community must also know the conditions of the area where they live so that they can anticipate any activities carried out. The method is used fuzzy to determine the risk zone for the spread of Covid-19 in North Sumatra Province based on 3 variables, namely positive cases, suspected cases, and dead cases. The data used in this study is weekly Covid-19 data from March 2021 to July 2021 for 4 selected areas, namely Medan City, Pematang Siantar City, Simalungun Regency, and Central Tapanuli Regency. All variables are represented using triangular curves and their membership functions are determined. Then the implication function of the min is used to determine the rules used. From the results of the implication function, the composition between all the rules obtained is carried out by taking the maximum rule then that value is used to modify the fuzzy area so that a new membership function is obtained. The method is used centroid to obtain a crisp or the final result is the value of the risk zone. This research also utilizes the Matlab to calculate the results. The results from the use of the Mamdani method will be compared with the real risk zone data so as to produce a 75% average percentage similarity for the data for 4 regions in North Sumatra so it can be concluded that the model made is good enough to determine the risk zone for the spread of Covid-19 in North Sumatra Province.